Qingyun Duan Professor

Surface hydrology,hydrologic model development and calibration, hydrological ensemble forecasting, statistical methods for uncertainty analyses of large complex system models, climate change impacts on hydrology and water resources

1、Research on multi-model post-processing method for sub-seasonal hydrometeorological ensemble forecast based on typical events

2、Thematic climate and subsurface changes synergistically drive changes in water resources in water-holding areas

3、Optimization study of land-air coupling model on the Tibetan Plateau based on multi-source data

2023

Florindo, F., V. Acocella, A.M. Carlton, P. D’Odorico, Q. Duan, A. Gettelman, et al., 2023. 60 years and beyond of Reviews of Geophysics. Reviews of Geophysics, 61, e2023RG000807. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023RG000807

Huang, Z., T. Zhao, Y. Tian, X. Chen, Q. Duan, H. Wang, 2023. Reliability of ensemble climatological forecasts, Water Resources Research, doi: 10.1029/2023WR034942

Jafarzadegan, K., H. Moradkhani, F. Pappenberger, H. Moftakhari, P. Bates, P. Abbaszadeh, R. Marsooli, C. Ferreira, H.L. Cloke, F. Ogden, Q. Duan, 2023. Recent advances and new frontiers in riverine and coastal flood modeling, Reviews of Geophysics,  https://doi.org/10.1029/2022RG000788

Li, W., J. Zhang, R. Sun, Q. Duan*, 2023. Evaluation of Tianji and ECMWF high-resolution precipitation forecasts for extreme rainfall event in Henan in July 2021, Water Science and Engineering, 16, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wse.2022.11.002

Liu, S., Z. Liu, Q. Duan*, B. Huang, 2022. The performance of CMIP6 models in simulating surface energy fluxes over global continents. Climate Dynamics. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06595-5

Liu, Z., Q. Duan*, X. Fan, et al. Bayesian retro- and prospective assessment of CMIP6 climatology in Pan Third Pole region. Climate Dynamics 60, 767–784 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06345-7

Stephens, G., J. Polcher, X. Zeng, P. van Oevelen, G. Poveda, M. Bosilovich, M.-H. Ahn, G. Balsamo, Q. Duan, G. Hegerl, C. Jakob, B. Lamptey, R. Leung, M. Piles, Z. Su, P. Dirmeyer, K.L. Findell, A. Verhoef, M. Ek, T. L’Ecuyer, R. Roca, A. Nazemi, F. Dominguez, D. Klocke, and S. Bony, 2023. The First 30 Years of GEWEX, Bulletin of American Meteorological Society, E126–E157, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0061.1

Su, T., C. Miao, Q. Duan, J. Gou, X. Guo, and X. Zhao, 2023. Hydrological response to climate change and human activities in the Three-River Source Region, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1477–1492, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1477-2023.

Sun, R., B. Pan, Q. Duan*, 2023. A surrogate modeling method for distributed land surface hydrological models based on deep learning, J. Hydrology, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129944

Tan, J., Q. Duan*, C. Xiao, C. He, & X. Yan, 2023. A brief review of the coupled human-Earth system modeling: Current state and challenges. The Anthropocene Review, 0(0). https://doi.org/10.1177/20530196221149121

Zhang, S., Y.Lang, F. Yang, X. Qiao, X. Li, Y. Gu, Q. Yi, L. Luo, Q. Duan, 2023. Hydrological Modeling in the Upper Lancang-Mekong River Basin Using Global and Regional Gridded Meteorological Re-Analyses. Water, 15, 2209. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15122209

2022

Gou, J., C. Miao, Q. Duan, Q. Zhang, X. Guo, & T. Su, 2022. Seasonality and impact factor analysis of streamflow sensitivity to climate change across China. Earth's Future, 10, e2022EF003062. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF003062

Kong, D., C. Miao, Q. Duan, J. Li, H. Zheng, J. Gou, 2022. Xiaolangdi Dam: A valve for streamflow extremes on the lower Yellow River Journal of Hydrology, 606(127426), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.127426

Li, W., B. Pan, J. Xia, Q. Duan*, 2022. Convolutional neural network-based statistical post-processing of ensemble precipitation forecasts, Journal of Hydrology, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.127301

Li, W., Q. Duan*, Q.J. Wang, S. Huang, S. Liu, 2022. Evaluation and Statistical Post-Processing of Two Precipitation Reforecast Products During Summer in the Mainland of China, Journal of Geophysical Research – Atmospheres,  https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD036606

Miao C., J. Gou, B. Fu, Q. Tang, Q. Duan, Z. Chen, H. Lei, J. Chen, J. Guo, A.G.L. Borthwick, W. Ding, X. Duan, Y. Li, D. Kong, X. Guo, J. Wu, 2022. High-quality reconstruction of China’s natural streamflow, Science Bulletin, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2021.09.022

Quan, J., Y. Xue, Q. Duan, Z. Liu, K.W. Oleson, Y. Liu, 2022. Numerical Investigation and Uncertainty Analysis of Eastern China’s Large-Scale Urbanization Effect on Regional Climate. J Meteorol Res 35, 1023–1040 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-021-1033-y

Sun, R., Q. Duan*, X. Mao, 2022. A multi-objective adaptive surrogate modelling-based optimization algorithm for constrained hybrid problems, Environmental Modelling & Software, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.105272

Wang, S., B. Ancell, Z.L. Yang, Q. Duan, E.N. Anagnostou, 2022. Hydroclimatic extremes and impacts in a changing environment: Observations, mechanisms, and projections, Journal of Hydrology, doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.127615

2021

Abbaszadeh, P., H. Moradkhani, K. Gavahi, S. Kumar, C. Hain, X. Zhan, Q. Duan, C. Peters-Lidard, S. Karimiziarani, 2021. High-Resolution SMAP Satellite Soil Moisture Product: Exploring the Opportunities, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 102(4), DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0016.1

Clark, M. C.H. Luce, A. AghaKouchak, W. Berghuijs, C.H. David, Q. Duan, S. Ge, I. van Meerveld, C. Zheng, M.B. Parlange, S.W. Tyler, 2021. Open Science: Open Data, Open Models, ...and Open Publications? Water Resources Research, 57, e2020WR029480. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR029480

Fan, X., C. Miao, Q. Duan, C. Shen, Y. Wu, 2021. Future climate change hotspots under different 21st century warming scenarios, Earth’s Future, 9, e2021EF002027. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002027

Fan, X., Q. Duan*, C. Shen, Y. Wu, C. Xing, 2021. Evaluation of historical CMIP6 model simulations and future projections of temperature over the Pan‑Third Pole region, Environmental Science and Protection Research, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-17474-7

Fan, Y. R., Yu, L., Shi, X., & Duan, Q. Y., 2021. Tracing uncertainty contributors in the multi-hazard risk analysis for compound extremes. Earth's Future, 9, e2021EF002280. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002280

Han, J., C. Miao, Q. Duan, J. Wu, J. Gou, H. Zheng, 2021. Changes in Unevenness of Wet-Day Precipitation Over China During 1961–2020, Journal of Geophysical Research – Atmospheres, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD034483

Li, M., Z. Di, Q. Duan, 2021. Effect of sensitivity analysis on parameter optimization: Case study based on streamflow simulations using the SWAT model in China, Journal of Hydrology, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126896

Miao, C., Gou, J., Fu, B., Tang, Q., Duan, Q., Chen, Z., Lei, H., Chen, J., Guo, J., Borthwick, A.G. and Ding, W., 2021. High-quality reconstruction of China’s natural streamflow. Science Bulletin. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2021.09.022

Quan, J., Y. Xue, Q. Duan, Z. Liu, K.W. Oleson, Y. Liu, 2021. Numerical Investigation and Uncertainty Analysis of Eastern China’s Large-Scale Urbanization Effect on Regional Climate, Journal of Meteorological Research, 35(6), 1023-1040, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-021-1033-y

Razavi, S., and others (incl. Q. Duan), 2021. The Future of Sensitivity Analysis: An essential discipline for systems modeling and policy support,Env. Model. & Soft., https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104954

Sun, R., Q. Duan*, X. Huo, 2021. Multi-Objective Adaptive Surrogate Modeling-Based Optimization for Distributed Environmental Models Based on Grid Sampling, Water Resources Research, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR028740

Sun, R., Q. Duan*, J. Wang, 2021. Understanding the spatial patterns of evapotranspiration estimates from land surface models over China, J. Hydrology, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126021

Wang, C., Y. Qian, Q. Duan*, M. Huang, Z. Yang, L.K. Berg, W.I. Gustafson Jr, Z. Feng, J. Liu, J. Quan, 2021. Quantifying physical parameterization uncertainties associated with land-atmosphere interactions in the WRF model over Amazon, Atmospheric Research, 262, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105761

Zhang, C., Q. Duan*, P. J-F Yeh, Y. Pan, H. Gong, H. Moradkhani, W. Gong, X. Lei, W. Liao, L. Xu, Z. Huang, L. Zheng, X. Guo, 2021. Sub-regional groundwater storage recovery in North China Plain after the South-to-North water diversion project, J. Hydrology, 597, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126156

Zhang, C., P. Abbaszadeh, L. Xu, H. Moradkhani, Q. Duan, W. Gong, 2021. A Combined Optimization-Assimilation Framework to Enhance the Predictive Skill of Community Land Model, Water Resources Research, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021WR029879

2020

Duan, Q.* and A. Duan, 2020. The energy and water cycles under climate change, National Science Review, 7:553–557, doi:10.1093/nsr/nwaa003

Fan, X. Q. Duan*, C. Shen, Y. Wu, C. Xing, 2020. Global surface air temperatures in CMIP6: Historical performance and future changes, Environmental Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abb051

Fan, X., Miao, C., Duan, Q., Shen, C., &Wu, Y. (2020). The performance of CMIP6 versus CMIP5 in simulating temperature extremes over the global land surface. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,125, e2020JD033031. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033031

Florindo, F., Carlton, A. M., D'Odorico, P., Duan, Q., Halekas, J. S., Mollenhauer, G., & Rohling, E. J. (2020). Thank you to our peer reviewers for 2019. Reviews of Geophysics, 58, e2020RG000699. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020RG000699

Foufoula-Georgiou, E., C. Guilloteau, P. Nguyen, A. Aghakouchak, K.-L. Hsu, A. Busalacchi, F. J. Turk, C. Peters-Lidard, T. Oki, Q. Duan, W. Krajewski, R. Uijlenhoet, A. Barros, P. Kirstetter, W. Logan, T. Hogue, H. Gupta, V. Levizzani, 2020, Advancing Precipitation Estimation, Prediction, and Impact Studies, Bulletin of American Meteorological Society, 101(11), E1584-E1592, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0014.1

Gou, J., C Miao, Q Duan, Q Tang, Z Di, W Liao, J Wu, R Zhou, 2020, Sensitivity Analysis-Based Automatic Parameter Calibration of the VIC Model for Streamflow Simulations Over China, Water Resour. Res., e2019WR025968

Han, J. C Miao, Q Duan, J Wu, X Lei, W Liao, 2020, Variations in start date, end date, frequency and intensity of yearly temperature extremes across China during the period, Envi Res. Letters, 15(4), DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab7390

Han., J., C. Miao, Q. Duan, J. Wu, J. Gou, H. Zheng, 2021. Changes in Unevenness of Wet-Day Precipitation Over China During 1961–2020, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,  https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD034483

Huang, L., A. Ye, C. Tang, Q. Duan, Y. Zhang, 2020. Impact of rural depopulation and climate change on vegetation, runoff and sediment load in the Gan River basin, China, Hydrology Research (2020) 51 (4): 768–780. https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2020.120

Lang, Y., L. Luo, A. Ye and Q. Duan, 2020. Do CFSv2 Seasonal Forecasts Help Improve the Forecast of Meteorological Drought over Mainland China? Water 2020, 12(7), 2010; https://doi.org/10.3390/w12072010

Li, W, QJ Wang, Q Duan*, 2020, A Variable-Correlation Model to Characterize Asymmetric Dependence for Postprocessing Short-Term Precipitation Forecasts, Monthly Weather Review, 148(1), 241-257

Miao, C., Zheng, H., Jiao, J., Feng, X., Duan, Q., & Mpofu, E. (2020). The changing relationship between rainfall and surface runoff on the Loess Plateau, China.Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 125, e2019JD032053. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD032053

Shen, C. W., Q. Y. Duan*, W. Gong, et al., 2020: An objective approach to generating multi-physics ensemble precipitation forecasts based on the WRF model. J. Meteor. Res., 34(3), 601–620, doi:10.1007/s13351-020-9198-3.

Shen, C.W., Q.Y. Duan*, C. Y. Miao, C. Xing, X.W. Fan, Y. Wu, and J.Y. Han, 2020: Bias correction and ensemble projections of temperature changes over ten subregions in CORDEX East Asia. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 37(161),1191−1210, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-020-0026-6.

Singh, S.K., M. Pahlow, Q. Duan, G.A. Griffiths, 2020. Improving hydrological multi-model prediction by elimination of double counting in the ensemble,J. Hydrology: New Zealand, 58(2):81-104

Sun, Q., C. Miao, A. AghaKouchak, I. Mallakpour, D. Ji, Q. Duan, 2020, Possible Increased frequency of ENSO-related dry and wet conditions over some major watersheds in a warming climate,Bullet. Amer. Met. Soc., 101 (4): E409–E426. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0258.1

Wang, C., Y. Qian, Q. Duan*, M. Huang, LK Berg, HH Shin, Z Feng, B Yang, J Quan, S Hong, J Yan, 2020, Assessing the sensitivity of land-atmosphere coupling strength to boundary and surface layer parameters in the WRF model over Amazon, Atmosphere Research, 234, 104738

Wang, H., W Gong, Q Duan*, Z Di, 2020, Evaluation of parameter interaction effect of hydrological models using the sparse polynomial chaos (SPC) method, Env. Model. & Soft., 125, 104612

Wu, W., R. Emerton, Q. Duan, A.W. Wood, F. Wetterhall, D.E. Robertson, 2020. Ensemble flood forecasting: Current status and future opportunities, WIREs Water, DOI: 10.1002/wat2.1432

Wu, Y., C. Miao, Q. Duan, C. Shen, X. Fan, 2020. Evaluation and projection of daily maximum and minimum temperatures over China using the high-resolution NEX-GDDP dataset, Climate Dynamicshttps://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05404-1

Yin, Y., L. Wang, Z. Wang, Q. Tang, S. Piao, D. Chen, J. Xia, T. Conradt, J. Liu, Y. Wada, X. Cai, Z. Xie, Q. Duan, X. Li, J. Zhou, J. Zhang, 2020. Quantifying Water Scarcity in Northern China Within the Context of Climatic and Societal Changes and South‐to‐North Water Diversion, Earth’s Future, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001492

Zhang, C., Z. Di, Q. Duan, Z. Xie and W. Gong, 2020. Improved Land Evapotranspiration Simulation of the Community Land Model Using a Surrogate-Based Automatic Parameter Optimization Method, Water, 12, 943; doi:10.3390/w12040943

Zhang, C., Duan, Q.*, Yeh, P. J.‐F., Pan,Y., Gong, H., & Gong, W., et al. (2020). The effectiveness of the South‐to‐North Water Diversion Middle Route Project on water delivery and groundwater recovery in North China Plain. Water Resources Research, 56, e2019WR026759. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR026759

1、English for Hydrology and Water Resources, Undergraduate, 24

2. Hydrometeorology, undergraduate, 16

UQ-PyL (Uncertainty Quantification Python Laboratory)